So far in 2019 there has been one confirmed hurricane so far, four tropical storms and five tropical depressions. The latest predicted hurricane is Dorian which is currently tropical storm making its way across the Atlantic Ocean towards the Caribbean, particularly the central Lesser Antilles. Forecasters expect Dorian to strengthen over the next 48 hours and say it could reach hurricane strength by the time it reaches the eastern Caribbean. But where are there other tropical storm risks in the world?
The Northwest Pacific Ocean
This is currently the system with the highest risk of developing into a tropical storm.
As of Saturday at 6pm PST (2am BST today) the remnants of tropical storm Bailu were still impacting the area.
The remaining tropical cyclone Bailu was located near latitude 23.9 north, longitude 117.8 east, which was approximately 225 nautical miles east northeast of Hong Kong.
It had tracked west northwestward at 15 kts (17.3 mph) over the previous six hours and had maximum sustained wind speeds estimated to be 40 to 50 kts (46 to 58 mph).
Meanwhile, the new high risk tropical disturbance was tracking near latitude 10.0 north, longitude 138.0 east, approximately 30 nautical miles north northwest of Yap, an island in the Federated States of Micronesia, in the Pacific Ocean.
Satellite imagery of this tropical disturbance records broad low level circulation with flaring convection over the western semicircle.
A partial image estimates the speed to be around 20 to 25 kts (23 to 29 mph) over the eastern semicircle and analysis reveals there is a modern to high vertical wind shear offset by strong diffluence aloft.
It is currently tracking west northwestward towards Luzon with slow consolidation over the next two days.
The maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be at 20 to 25 kts (23 to 29 mph) and the minimum sea level pressure is believed to be near 1005 mb.
The potential for its development into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours was upgraded to high earlier today.
As of 2pm EDT (7pm BST) the National Hurricane Center issued an advisory for Tropical Storm Dorian which is located several hundred miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.
However, it is not the only tropical disturbance being monitored in the Atlantic.
There is another high risk being monitored in the area which is producing large areas of showers and thunderstorms from South Florida to the northwestern Bahamas and the adjacent Atlantic waters because of a broad area of lower pressure located inland over the southern Florida peninsula.
There is an 80 percent chance a cyclone will form in the next five days, with a 60 percent chance it will form in the next 48 hours.
According to the NOAA, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development once the low moves off the east central coast of Florida over the western Atlantic over the next few days.
The disturbance is likely to develop into a tropical storm as the system moves slowly northeastward a distance offshore of the southeastern United States.
The third highest tropical storm risk is for Fiji which has a very low risk of turning into a tropical storm.
The tropical disturbance was located at latitude 11.7 south, longitude 176.8 east and was moving slowly from there.
The convection had weakened from there, with the centre exposed and the organisation poor.
The cyclonic circulation extended up to 700 hpa and the system lay in a moderate sheared environment.
A high shear environment was beside the system to the south with dry area.
The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone over the next 24 to 48 hours is considered to be very low.
The Eastern Pacific
While a tropical cyclone is not expected to form in this region during the next five days, the remnants of tropical storm Ivo remain.
As of 11am PDT (7pm BST) the National Hurricane Center had issued an advisory for Tropical Depression Ivo.
Ivo was located about 500 miles west-northwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula and it was not expected to intensify in the next five days.
As of 8am PDT (4pm BST) Ivo had maximum sustained wind speeds of 30 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1007mb and was located at latitude 25.5 north, longitude 117.4 west.
From there, Ivo was tracking north northwestwards at 12 mph.
There are a number of other areas which are currently clear of any tropical disturbances, these include:
- South Indian Ocean
- North Indian Ocean
- South Pacific Ocean
- Australia – Western region
- Australia – Northern region
- Australia – Eastern region
- Central Pacific