As the Atlantic hurricane season enters a “tropical red zone” two new tropical storms which could become hurricanes are heading towards the USA. The highest risk tropical storm is located over South Florida and has a 90 percent chance of cyclone formation in the next five days. The second is currently tracking just off upper Texas and has a 10 percent chance of cyclone formation in the next five days.
Hurricane risk one
The NOAA uses the term disturbance to describe these two storms which are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which poses the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours.
The first disturbance is producing large areas of showers and thunderstorms from South Florida to the northwestern Bahamas and the adjacent Atlantic waters because of a broad area of lower pressure located inland over Florida.
There is a 90 percent chance a cyclone will form in the next five days, with a 70 percent chance it will form in the next 48 hours.
According to the NOAA, there is a low risk the cyclone will develop seriously today, as it drifts northward over the southern or central Florida peninsula.
However, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development once the low moves off the east central coast of Florida over the western Atlantic by Sunday.
A tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form early next week as the system moves northeastward offshore of the southeastern United States coast.
However, even if the churning tropical storms do not develop into hurricanes, heavy showers are possible in northwestern Bahamas, southern and central Florida over the weekend.
Hurricane risk two
The second “disturbance” is located between the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coast.
Rainfall and thunderstorms in the area represent a risk of hurricane formation.
However, the NOAA said the system is likely to move inland over east Texas and western Louisiana before significant development can occur.
There is an equal 10 percent chance of a cyclone forming over the next 48 hours and through the next five days.
But, regardless of the chances of a more serious storm developing, parts of Louisiana and Texas are expected to experience a heavy onset of rain as a result of the disturbances.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there is a tropical storm to the east of the Lesser Antilles which became Tropical Depression Five this morning.
The depression was located around 800 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles at 11am AST (4pm BST) on Saturday.
The depression is expected to become a tropical storm as early as tomorrow or Monday and is forecast to reach the Windward Islands on Tuesday or Wednesday.
It is possible that by the time it reaches the West Indian islands it may have become a strong tropical storm or even a hurricane, depending on the amount of wind shear it encounters on its route.